REF and ALT tracks look identical even with high raw_score and quantile_score

Hello,

I am analyzing variant effects using AlphaGenome and I have a question about how to interpret the visualization results.

When I plot the predictions for REF and ALT sequences, the curves often appear visually overlapping in the figure. However, when I compute the numerical difference (ALT − REF), there is a non-zero effect.

For example:
max_delta = 8

In addition, the results from the variant scoring step show both a high raw_score and a high quantile_score.

In my analysis I also filtered variants using a quantile_score threshold above 0.9 (a threshold defined for my study). However, even among these variants with high quantile_score and high raw_score, the RNA-seq plots sometimes still look almost identical.

This raises a few questions:

  1. Is it expected that REF and ALT tracks may appear visually identical even for variants with high raw_score and quantile_score (>0.9)?

  2. In other words, can a variant have a high predicted impact according to the scoring metrics, but still produce changes that are difficult to visually detect in the RNA-seq plots?

  3. Should interpretation of the variant effect rely mainly on the raw_score (or aggregated score) rather than the visual difference in the plotted tracks?

My understanding is that the quantile_score represents the rank of the raw_score relative to a background distribution of common variants, indicating how extreme the predicted effect is, rather than how large the visual difference in the track should appear.

I would appreciate any clarification on how to interpret this situation.

Thank you!